The results of a new web poll survey conducted by Rock radio consultants Jacobs Media, consisting of over 25,000 respondents from over 75 Rock-formatted stations from all over the U.S., show that Howard Stern’s move to Sirius has helped that satellite radio company match or surpass the subscriber rate of rival XM among Rock radio listeners. But approximately 70% of Stern’s regular listeners acknowledge they’ve stayed with commercial radio morning shows. The survey was conducted in late February, roughly 5-6 weeks after Stern’s debut on Sirius.

The study shows parity between Sirius and XM (both with 6%) of all respondents. Of those who say they are likely to buy satellite radio this year, the edge belongs to Sirius.

Among Sirius subscribers in this survey, Stern is the key motivator, cited by one-third of these respondents. But the study also shows that the Stern-led exodus to Sirius may be about over. Most of those who were enticed by Sirius have already made the purchase, with a smaller percentage indicating they intend to buy Sirius later this year.

Isolating markets where Stern was broadcasting on commercial radio in 2005 (over 15,000 respondents), one-fifth of those who considered themselves "regular listeners" to his show have subscribed to Sirius, with one in ten indicating they plan to do so. This is a strong indicator that for commercial radio broadcasters in Stern markets, the worst is over.

But seven in ten of these "regular listeners" to Stern have stuck with commercial radio morning shows, indicating that once Arbitron ratings settle down, several AM/FM morning teams and DJs will grow their audience bases in his wake.

Several stations whose listeners were included in the Jacobs Media sample were former Stern affiliates, and their data was reviewed as well. On average, defections to Sirius were no greater among listeners to these stations, but there was considerable variance. Some former Stern stations were able to retain a considerably higher percentage of his audience for their new morning shows. In other cases, however, defections were substantially higher than the average for all Stern markets.

As this chart shows, one-fifth of these former Stern listeners bought Sirius, while nearly one in ten intends to do so. But Station 1, for example, was more successful in holding onto his former audience than were Stations 4 and 5.

Additionally, some of these new morning shows on former Stern stations are in position to hold their own since his move to satellite radio. As the chart below shows, Station 1 has held onto more than half of Stern’s regular listenership, while some of these other stations have not been as fortunate.

The biggest winners appear to be many of Stern’s former FM competitors around the country. Five of these stations from markets around the U.S. were isolated to analyze how their morning shows have benefited from Stern leaving commercial radio.

Overall, nearly half (46%) of those who considered themselves "regular listeners" to Stern have stayed with the surveying station’s morning show (below):