We have completed our analysis of the next portion of the Tech Poll – who’s winning in the satellite radio wars. The poll shows XM and Sirius at parity – and the momentum arrows are pointing toward Sirius. While Howard Stern’s exodus from terrestrial radio and multi-year contract has been highly debated, he emerges as a major reason for Sirius’s gains, and potential growth.

For Sirius, Howard was the difference maker. More than any other reason, his show’s move to satellite was the key factor in driving new subscribers. While most of his former listeners are staying with terrestrial radio stations, his presence on Sirius has been a defining difference.

In the poll, overall satellite radio subscribership increased from 7% in 2005 to 12% in this year’s survey. Compared to other new media – Internet streaming, iPod ownership and usage, and cell phone applications, satellite radio remains a medium that is still very embryonic.

In a departure from documented subscription data that shows XM in the lead, the Jacobs Media Technology Poll reveals a dead heat between Sirius and XM – both are tied with 6% each among all respondents. Men are more apt to subscribe to either service, as are 30-39 year-olds, college grads, and those with a household income of $100,000 and more. In the Rock communities, Sirius is emerging as the more attractive option.

The survey also asked non-subscribers about the chances they’d purchase either XM or Sirius later in 2006. While nearly nine in ten indicate little to no likelihood of signing up for either service, 5% report they’re very apt to become an XM customer, compared to 7% for Sirius. Men and 18-39 year-old respondents lean toward Sirius.

What motivated current satellite radio subscribers to select either XM or Sirius? The differences between the two services are vast, and say a great deal about the programming strategies that Sirius and XM have employed.

For XM, the top reasons for signing up are the music channels (24%), commercial-free programming (14%), the belief that XM is good while traveling (12%), and because it came with the vehicle that respondents purchased/leased (11%). Other less frequently mentioned motivators include dissatisfaction with commercial radio, XM sports programming, and Opie & Anthony (all with 8% or less).

Sirius subscribers, on the other hand, were heavily motivated by the arrival of Howard Stern, who has altered the hierarchy for Sirius, passing the music channels and commercial-free assets. Overall, one-third (32%) of those who now pay for Sirius list Stern as the key factor in their decision. Other reasons include the music channels (19%), and commercial-free programming (12%). Less frequently mentioned Sirius qualities include unhappiness with commercial radio, it’s good for travel, and the fact it came with the car (all with 7% or less).

The vast majority of satellite radio subscribers in this survey are pleased with XM and/or Sirius. Three fourths (75%) say they’re satisfied or very satisfied, while only 7% express some level of dissatisfaction.

Similarly, nearly six in ten (57%) say they will absolutely continue to subscribe, while one-fourth (23%) indicate they will probably stay with either XM or Sirius. Overall, 13% aren’t sure, while 8% report being pretty or absolutely sure they will cancel satellite radio before the year is out.

In the overall media hierarchy, satellite radio continues to lag behind more mass appeal activities, such as Internet streaming and iPod ownership.

And the majority of respondents in this survey are not inclined to pay for a radio-like product. In response to an Agree/Disagree statement - "I will not pay for radio when I now get it for free" - seven of every ten poll takers agree or agree strongly. 

But among those Rockers who already have satellite radio, or are strongly considering buying it in 2006, Sirius appears to have gained an edge.

Jacobs Media’s Technology Web Poll II was conducted in late February 2006, among more than 25,000 respondents across 79 different Rock-formatted stations. Participating stations represent Mainstream Rock, Classic Rock, and Alternative outlets. Of course, this is a web poll, and cannot replicate all radio listeners or even all Rock radio listeners. As with all Internet-based research projects of this kind, the results reflect only those who chose to participate in the survey, and do not necessarily represent the views of all Rock radio listeners in the country. Still, the 79 radio stations that invited their listeners to take the survey are a broad cross-section of Rock stations, from large and small markets, as well as those that play the newest Rock music and those that play only Classic Rock.