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Trying to corral Stern's lost herd
Only a fraction of the audience followed the shock jock
to satellite. Stations wonder where millions of ears went.
By Martin
Miller, Times Staff Writer
April 11, 2006
Can millions of
listeners just disappear?
That's a question plaguing Howard Stern and one
with vital implications for radio itself in the wake of the shock jock's
heralded and hyped switch from free to satellite broadcasting.
The
self-proclaimed King of All Media once commanded a national audience of 12
million daily listeners before jumping to satellite in January. But since then,
his kingdom has shrunk to a small fraction of that size. Meanwhile, the shock
jock's main replacements thus far have failed to hold very much of the former
flock.
According to industry analysts, the new Stern math scans something
like this: At best, he took between 1 million and 2 million listeners with him,
and his replacements, spread across many of the country's major radio markets,
are drawing numbers in a similar range.
That leaves 8 million to 10
million nomadic listeners nationwide wandering the terrestrial radio dial in
search of a new voice or sound to lead them out of the morning drive-time
wilderness. Call them the Howard Stern diaspora, those legions unwilling to fork
over satellite subscription fees and unimpressed by pretenders to the
throne.
The timing could scarcely be worse for terrestrial radio, which
needs an oversized, rudderless audience now like it needs another intriguing and
easy-to-use competitor — say, an iPod, podcasts, personalized CDs or, Stern
notwithstanding, the siren songs of satellite.
"It's unprecedented that a
radio personality of Stern's magnitude has ever just pulled the plug on his
show," said Perry Michael Simon, news-talk-sports editor of AllAccess.com, an
online journal of the radio industry. "We're really in uncharted territory
here."
With limited ratings data so far, it's hard to tell where the
Stern herd is roaming and where big portions of it might ultimately settle, say
analysts. But Arbitron ratings clearly demonstrate they aren't stampeding toward
Stern's big-name replacements, former Van Halen frontman David Lee Roth on the
East Coast and comedian Adam Carolla on the West Coast. Although any
head-to-head comparisons between the newcomers and the veteran Stern are unfair,
say analysts, the pair's ratings are nevertheless widely regarded as
disappointing and, in one case, possibly job threatening.
In their first
couple of months, Carolla registered less than a quarter of Stern's ratings
while Roth notched well under a fifth. Executives at CBS Radio have said it will
take 18 months to two years to build an audience around their new talent, but
even so many contend that Roth might soon be fired.
"I think CBS is
already trying to figure out an exit strategy with Roth," said Michael Harrison,
editor and publisher of the talk radio magazine Talker. "The jury is still out
on Carolla."
Meanwhile, Stern's numbers at Sirius, which has more than 4
million subscribers, remain a mystery. The satellite company, which charges
about $13 per month for the service, won't release audience numbers. But
analysts speculate that even if a quarter of the company's subscribers are daily
Stern listeners, that would be considered a staggering success.
In a
recent interview, Stern attacked his ex-listeners who are still clinging to
terrestrial radio and have refused to cheer him on on the other
side.
"You haven't come with me yet? How dare you?" Stern told
Entertainment Weekly. "We're up to wild, crazy stuff; the show has never sounded
better."
So far, terrestrial radio — outside of the former Stern
affiliates — have tried the soft sell when courting the enormous uncommitted
audience. In most major market cities late last year, counter-marketing largely
took the form of billboards touting a particular morning show's free — as in, no
subscription required — services. In Los Angeles, "Mancow" Muller, heard on XTRA
Sports 570, adopted this strategy. And some rock stations, such as WAAF-FM in
Boston, began promoting new online guides for "virgin" listeners to get them up
to speed on the show's colorful characters.
That strategy shows some
promise. A Web-based survey by Jacobs Media released last month suggests Stern's
former FM competitors around the country are the ones reaping the
benefits.
Although unscientific, the poll, which was based on responses
from more than 25,000 listeners from 79 rock stations across the country, showed
more than half of Stern's former audience has not stuck with the affiliate
replacements. Instead they seem to be gravitating toward similar,
well-established morning programs.
"Stern's departure has shaken up the
pecking order of what people are listening to," said Fred Jacobs, whose
Michigan-based rock radio consulting firm conducted the poll. "It's a
once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for local radio stations."
In Los Angeles,
this is no doubt good news for longtime shows like "Kevin & Bean" on KROQ-FM
(106.7) and "Mark & Brian" on KLOS-FM (95.5). Quarterly Arbitron ratings
slated to be released this month will probably bear out this trend, say
analysts.
"I think what you're going to find is that existing mature
shows that are in the same basic neighborhood of Stern will grow stronger," said
Jacobs. "And the new and fledgling shows are going to perform like new and
fledgling shows."
Other winners in the Stern sweepstakes may be local
talk radio — and oddly enough National Public Radio. More time spent with NPR's
"Morning Edition" may not be as incongruous as it might seem initially for an
audience that once tuned into Stern's carnival of scatological and porn jokes,
analysts say.
Morning talk radio tends to be dominated by conservatives,
but Stern's audience tends to be centrist to liberal in political orientation,
for which NPR is a better fit, analysts say. And both shows emphasize lifestyle,
quirky or offbeat takes on the news and appeal to baby boomers, they
say.
"If you love bluegrass, you're not supposed to love Metallica, but
you do," said Alex DeMers, head of a media consulting firm near Philadelphia.
"There's more than a surface connection between Howard and NPR. As much as
Howard is put down as being all about dirt and sex, it's also intelligent talk,
and he's funny."
As this audience experiments with other stations,
analysts expect ratings to vacillate among the morning shows for months, even
years, before the new listening patterns become habit. And even though most
believe that the bulk of hard-core fans who couldn't live without their Stern
have already signed up for Sirius, it's possible more may pony up Sirius
subscription fees if terrestrial has nothing to offer them.
"There is
nothing else out there right now that approximates Howard," said Harrison. "Some
may eventually migrate to Sirius."
Then again, added Harrison, in perhaps
the darkest scenario for the entire radio universe: "People have lives and they
can do other things, including enjoy the silence."